Great article. I would love some more details on how the New Nixon Shock supposedly benefits any party; I’m not sure I understood that part very well.
For example, why would we want to be a producer core surrounded by a debt ridden periphery? How does blowing up the balance of trade allow Washington to be freer with national policy. etc
One thing this tariff scheme is NOT is a disciplined effort to bring key manufacturing sectors back onto US soil, and create US working-class jobs along the way. The rollout is too random, too scattershot, too unpredictable. Businesses won't commit to supply chain changes until they have some horizon of predictability. The way Trump is pursuing this is the direct opposite of that, seemingly intended to project shock and awe.
It scarcely matters what the intent of Trump's backers and supporters is. Maybe each has their own 4D chess strategy behind it. But when the execution is this comically ham-handed that fact Trumps everything (pun intended).
Interesting analysis. I doubt Trump really cares much about his supporters' reputations, and I agree with you that Trump likely has little clue about these more intellectual and abstract notions of financial restructuring. He is being used as a useful idiot by an array of competing interests, each conniving to advance his or her pet theory. Whoever last whispered his or her sweet nothing in Trump's credulous ear advances his football towards the end zone.
Re: "Trump's credulous ear", I think this doesn't give him the credit he deserves.
Trump has a masterful way of beguiling people into thinking they can manipulate him, only to realize too late that they are the useful idiots in a game they don't understand. Elon Musk, Bill Ackman, Rudy Giuliani, ... there's a long line of otherwise respected people who voluntarily self-immolate in Trump's orbit.
The game is staying in the spotlight, and exerting cruelty and control. The fact that Musk is willing to drag his reputation through the mud for him is proof of where they are in the relative pecking order.
Isn't that just a function of the fact that he's the President, and thus his decisions/whims are necessarily the final say? That doesn't mean he is manipulating people, just that the power of others to manipulate him is limited (including by arbitrary changes of his mood).
I read Cass regularly, it is a shame his star is hitched to Trump at the moment, he and his associates are extremely interesting and well reasoned thinkers on the right. They are somewhat of a breath of fresh air in our politics. As you say though, the brand might be sustaining some damage at the moment.
It is no secret that Trump simply likes tariffs. It’s pretty clear that he doesn’t understand (or doesn’t want to understand) what they are, how they work, or what their impacts ultimately will be.
I suspect that Trump’s affinity for tariffs is being used by various advisors for differing policy agendas. These people have a plan and are using the President, but admittedly, are pushing “mutually incompatible” agendas.
Are the tariffs about Fentanyl or emergency deficits? Clearly not, nobody believes that. Are they about debt reduction (revenue). They could be, but they cannot “reshore” production and raise revenue simultaneously.
I could get behind a plan, even an ambitious one, to rework the global trade order IF that plan was clearly articulated and professionally planned. We have nothing of the sort coming from the White House.
To the extent the US wants to encourage more domestic manufacturing, it should adopt a zero-based regulatory environment that defaults to zero rather than endless regulatory expansion.
It should also remove taxation on production and shift to taxation on consumption, land, and resources.
Great article. I would love some more details on how the New Nixon Shock supposedly benefits any party; I’m not sure I understood that part very well.
For example, why would we want to be a producer core surrounded by a debt ridden periphery? How does blowing up the balance of trade allow Washington to be freer with national policy. etc
One thing this tariff scheme is NOT is a disciplined effort to bring key manufacturing sectors back onto US soil, and create US working-class jobs along the way. The rollout is too random, too scattershot, too unpredictable. Businesses won't commit to supply chain changes until they have some horizon of predictability. The way Trump is pursuing this is the direct opposite of that, seemingly intended to project shock and awe.
It scarcely matters what the intent of Trump's backers and supporters is. Maybe each has their own 4D chess strategy behind it. But when the execution is this comically ham-handed that fact Trumps everything (pun intended).
Feedback: Very helpful and differentiated take, thanks.
Interesting analysis. I doubt Trump really cares much about his supporters' reputations, and I agree with you that Trump likely has little clue about these more intellectual and abstract notions of financial restructuring. He is being used as a useful idiot by an array of competing interests, each conniving to advance his or her pet theory. Whoever last whispered his or her sweet nothing in Trump's credulous ear advances his football towards the end zone.
Re: "Trump's credulous ear", I think this doesn't give him the credit he deserves.
Trump has a masterful way of beguiling people into thinking they can manipulate him, only to realize too late that they are the useful idiots in a game they don't understand. Elon Musk, Bill Ackman, Rudy Giuliani, ... there's a long line of otherwise respected people who voluntarily self-immolate in Trump's orbit.
The game is staying in the spotlight, and exerting cruelty and control. The fact that Musk is willing to drag his reputation through the mud for him is proof of where they are in the relative pecking order.
Isn't that just a function of the fact that he's the President, and thus his decisions/whims are necessarily the final say? That doesn't mean he is manipulating people, just that the power of others to manipulate him is limited (including by arbitrary changes of his mood).
I read Cass regularly, it is a shame his star is hitched to Trump at the moment, he and his associates are extremely interesting and well reasoned thinkers on the right. They are somewhat of a breath of fresh air in our politics. As you say though, the brand might be sustaining some damage at the moment.
I could not have said this better myself Samuel
It is no secret that Trump simply likes tariffs. It’s pretty clear that he doesn’t understand (or doesn’t want to understand) what they are, how they work, or what their impacts ultimately will be.
I suspect that Trump’s affinity for tariffs is being used by various advisors for differing policy agendas. These people have a plan and are using the President, but admittedly, are pushing “mutually incompatible” agendas.
Are the tariffs about Fentanyl or emergency deficits? Clearly not, nobody believes that. Are they about debt reduction (revenue). They could be, but they cannot “reshore” production and raise revenue simultaneously.
I could get behind a plan, even an ambitious one, to rework the global trade order IF that plan was clearly articulated and professionally planned. We have nothing of the sort coming from the White House.
To the extent the US wants to encourage more domestic manufacturing, it should adopt a zero-based regulatory environment that defaults to zero rather than endless regulatory expansion.
It should also remove taxation on production and shift to taxation on consumption, land, and resources.
I give you credit, in all seriousness, for being honest enough to acknowledge the chaos-monkey flailing incoherence of all of this.
The next logical step is to follow the likes of Hanania and admit you were wrong to support Trump. I'll wait.
No the idea is to turn he USA into a shithole country so no one wants to migrate there. Job done.